[051022] Empirical Study on the Decline of Lineage 2 in Korea

http://ssrn.com/abstract=833847 Abstract:      The purpose of this article is to take empirical tests for presumed causes of Lineage 2's declining trend in Korea. Using time usage data of Lineage 2(L2), Kart Riders(Kart) and World of Worldcraft(WoW) collected from PC-bangs in Korea, we take statistical tests on the rivalry hypothesis among games. Results show that there is no consistent evidence that L2's falling down is caused by the success of Kart or WoW. Instead, it is clearly identified that the trend of RMT had a respectable impacts on L2 in comparison to L1. All the test result implies that in-game factors such as RMT played a more decisive role in L2's decline than external factors like tougher competition.

Keywords: Lineage 2, World of Warcaraft, Kart Rider, VAR, Granger causality, Impulse response function, Real-money trading